Jumping to Conclusions
An interactive version of the beads task, a classic probabilistic reasoning measure used in psychosis research.
How it works
Two jars hold 100 beads each. One is mostly blue (70 blue, 30 red); the other is mostly red (70 red, 30 blue). On each round the computer secretly picks one jar and you draw beads from it, one at a time, for as long as you like. When you feel confident, say which jar the beads are coming from.
There is no penalty for taking more draws. What the task measures is draws to decision: how much evidence a person needs before committing to a belief. Deciding after one or two beads is the hallmark of the "jumping to conclusions" reasoning bias, which is more common in people with psychosis and delusional beliefs, and which metacognitive training (MCT) directly targets.
This is an educational demonstration, not a diagnostic test.
Round 1 of 10
RoundsRestart
Beads drawn
No beads drawn yet
Draw another bead
Jar 1
Red: 30 Blue: 70
Guess this jar
Jar 2
Red: 70 Blue: 30
Guess this jar
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